Economists for Ukraine
Working Paper Series
Editorial Committee: Tatyana Deryugina, Anastassia Fedyk, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, James Hodson, and Ilona Sologoub
Submit papers here
Economists for Ukraine are launching a new working paper series on Ukraine-related issues. The initiative aims to disseminate and promote research, build research networks, and inform policymakers on matters regarding Ukraine.
The format and process will largely follow leading working series such as NBER WP and CEPR DP. The editorial committee will review submissions for falling within the scope of the series and for meeting basic quality standards. Submissions can be in either English or Ukrainian (with a non-technical summary in English). There is no submission fee. All papers must be original, but publishing papers in the series does not preclude the authors from publishing their work elsewhere.
Papers accepted into the series gain visibility and targeted exposure. Each paper will be shared on our website and mailing list, directly reaching our membership and subscribers. We also promote new papers on social media, reaching a readership especially interested in Ukraine-related research—including scholars, practitioners, and policymakers.
Working Paper №1, "A HIMARS in the Hand is Worth Two in the Bush: Measuring the Real Economic Value of U.S. Support for Ukraine"
Anastassia Fedyk, James Hodson, Emilia Marshall, Tatyana Deryugina, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, and Ilona Sologoub
Working Paper №1, "A HIMARS in the Hand is Worth Two in the Bush: Measuring the Real Economic Value of U.S. Support for Ukraine"
Anastassia Fedyk, James Hodson, Emilia Marshall, Tatyana Deryugina, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, and Ilona Sologoub
Abstract
After three years of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine, what is the total value of U.S. economic and military support for Ukraine? The U.S. Government on various occasions has claimed that the United States has spent upwards of $350B to sustain Ukraine’s military efforts and fiscal budget. Open source trackers place the contribution at around $125B based on announcements and Congressional releases. We find that the true value of assistance delivered to Ukraine in the first three years of war has been much closer to $50 billion. The impact on domestic spending capacity and on the US Defense budget has been negligible, at roughly $11 per taxpayer per year.
Citation
Fedyk, A., Hodson, J., Marshall, E., Gorodnichenko, Y., Deryugina, T., & Sologoub, I. (2025). A HIMARS in the hand is worth two in the bush: Measuring the real economic value of U.S. support for Ukraine (Working Paper No. 1). Economists for Ukraine. https://econ4ua.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/Econ4UA-Working-Paper-No1.pdf
Working Paper №2, "Charitable Giving in Wartime: Evidence from Ukraine’s War Fundraising"
Margaryta Klymak, Andrew Kosenko, Oleg Korenok, Dariia Mykhailyshyna, and Kathryn Vasilaky
Working Paper №2, "Charitable Giving in Wartime: Evidence from Ukraine’s War Fundraising"
Margaryta Klymak, Andrew Kosenko, Oleg Korenok, Dariia Mykhailyshyna, and Kathryn Vasilaky
Abstract
We analyze how military events, civilian fatalities, and media coverage influence same-day donations to a major Ukrainian nonprofit providing lethal aid during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In a unique setting, we exploit random variation in attacks on civilians across time to estimate that one additional civilian fatality causes between $4,354 and $6,015 in same-day donations, and leads to at least $8,169 in cumulative donations. Disentangling the effects of events and media coverage, we estimate that a 1% increase in media mentions of military activity leads to a $2,906 increase in same-day donations and an $8,083 increase in cumulative donations.
Citation
Klymak, M., Kosenko, A., Korenok, O., Mykhailyshyna, D., & Vasilaky, K. (2025). Charitable Giving in Wartime: Evidence from Ukraine’s War Fundraising (Working Paper No. 2). Economists for Ukraine. https://econ4ua.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/Econ4UA-Working-Paper-No2.pdf
Working Paper №3, "Shockwaves from Ukraine: Trends and Gaps in Agricultural Commodity Prices"
Olga Bondarenko
Working Paper №3, "Shockwaves from Ukraine: Trends and Gaps in Agricultural Commodity Prices"
Olga Bondarenko
Abstract
I propose partial-equilibrium models that describe the dynamics of global wheat and corn markets. These models extend the classic competitive storage framework by incorporating nonstationary variables. They are calibrated using data from Ukraine and key importing and exporting countries. The models enable the endogenous estimation of price trends, based on the observed movements in the underlying variables. This framework provides insights into how involuntary reductions in Ukraine’s global market presence, triggered by russia’s invasion, could have affected trend prices.
Citation
Bondarenko, O. (2025). Shockwaves from Ukraine: Trends and Gaps in Agricultural Commodity Prices (Working Paper No. 3). Economists for Ukraine. https://econ4ua.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/Econ4UA-Working-Paper-No3.pdf
Working Paper №4, "Foreign Exchange Regimes in (Normal Times and) Times of War: Insights from Ukraine"
Oliver de Groot and Yevhenii Skok
Working Paper №4, "Foreign Exchange Regimes in (Normal Times and) Times of War: Insights from Ukraine"
Oliver de Groot and Yevhenii Skok
Abstract
On February 24, 2022, as Russia invaded, the National Bank of Ukraine switched from a flexible to a fixed exchange rate regime. Was this policy response optimal? To answer this, we develop an open-economy model with both nominal rigidities and frictions in borrowing on international financial markets. We find that the carefully calibrated model can rationalize the NBU’s decision: the optimal response to small shocks is to allow exchange rate flexibility, whereas in response to large shocks—such as an invasion—currency depreciation is suboptimal. For robustness, we consider tradable endowment, risk-premium, and non-tradable supply shocks, and add subsistence consumption.
Citation
de Groot, O. & Skok, Y. (2025). Foreign Exchange Regimes in (Normal Times and) Times of War: Insights from Ukraine (Working Paper No. 4). Economists for Ukraine. https://econ4ua.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/Econ4UA-Working-Paper-No4.pdf
Working Paper №5, "The Dynamics of Evasion: The Price Cap on Russian Oil Exports and the Amassing of the Shadow Fleet"
Diego S. Cardoso, Stephen W. Salant, and Julien Daubanes
Working Paper №5, "The Dynamics of Evasion: The Price Cap on Russian Oil Exports and the Amassing of the Shadow Fleet"
Diego S. Cardoso, Stephen W. Salant, and Julien Daubanes
Abstract
To reduce Russia’s funding for its Ukraine invasion, Western governments imposed, after a delay, a price ceiling on Russian seaborne oil exports utilizing Western services. To evade that ceiling, Russia developed a “shadow fleet” using no such services. We simulate a calibrated model driven by this fleet’s expansion to assess various sanctions. Mainly, sanctions—from a price ceiling to its extreme service ban version—significantly reduce the present value of Russia’s profits. However, tighter price caps will not necessarily harm Russia if they raise the world price. Shortening the delay between sanctions announcement and implementation can harm Russia more.
Citation
Cardoso, D. S., Salant, S. W., & Daubanes, J. (2025). The Dynamics of Evasion: The Price Cap on Russian Oil Exports and the Amassing of the Shadow Fleet (Working Paper No. 5). Economists for Ukraine. https://econ4ua.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/Econ4UA-Working-Paper-No5.pdf
Working Paper №6, "Macroeconomic Expectations in a War"
Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Vittal Vasudevan
Working Paper №6, "Macroeconomic Expectations in a War"
Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Vittal Vasudevan
Abstract
Using short- and long-term macroeconomic forecasts, we estimate the cost of the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine for countries in Eastern Europe, Caucasus, and Central Asia. Shortly after the Russian attack, the projected cost (cumulative over six years) stood at $2.44 trillion for the region. Professional forecasters predicted a dramatic increase in macroeconomic uncertainty, significant spillover effects, some hysteresis effects as well as a changing nature of business cycles. We also use the war shock to study how professional forecasters acquire and process information. Our results point to state dependence as well as an important role of forward information in shaping macroeconomic outlook of professional forecasters.
Citation
Gorodnichenko, Y. & Vasudevan, V. (2025). Macroeconomic Expectations in a War (Working Paper No. 6). Economists for Ukraine. https://econ4ua.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/Econ4UA-Working-Paper-No6.pdf