As economists specializing in behavioral economics and game theory, we teach strategic concepts from game theory to our business students. The same ideas can help us understand Russia’s current moves, predict its future behavior and derive the best strategies to achieve long-term goals.
Peace treaties don’t always bring peace. Sometimes they only change the form of war. As the world anticipates hopefully an end to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and some observers suggest that peace may come at the cost of Ukrainian territory, it’s important to remember that the short-term joy that will almost certainly accompany peace could be merely a prelude to years or decades of carnage unless the peace is just and stable.
After failing to capture Kyiv, the Kremlin focused its efforts on seizing and holding Donbas region and the south of Ukraine. In Donbass, Kremlin’s scorched-earth tactics have recently stalled. Russia’s slow advance in Ukraine combined with substantial military casualties mean that Putin desperately needs a pause in the war to regain his army’s weakening strength. This may temporarily freeze the conflict, but it will not bring a permanent peace to Europe.
The free world – the “West”, but also democracies in Asia, Africa, and Latin America – must prepare for a future without Putin, a future where Russia justly loses its war of choice and aggression.
In any negotiation, strong positioning is the most important factor. Assistance from Ukraine’s allies would give Ukraine, the victim, more bargaining power to reach an outcome that might be acceptable. Those who focus on Ukraine making territorial concessions or blame the United States for expanding the war only weaken Ukraine’s bargaining position.
Many commentators have written in the last few weeks that there is no solution to the Russia-Ukraine war other than diplomacy. No one is opposed to diplomacy. However, the key question is what kind of a diplomatic solution do we want to reach?
Together with fellow leading Ukrainian economists, we’ve compiled suggestions on how to maximize the impact of individual donations and be sure you’re giving wisely.
Dear Professor Chomsky,
We are a group of Ukrainian academic economists who were grieved by a series of your recent interviews and commentaries on the Russian war on Ukraine. We believe that your public opinion on this matter is counter-productive…
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