What are the reasons for the war?
- Russia’s imperialism. Russia continues to treat Ukraine as a colony. It does not see and will never see Ukraine as an independent state whose citizens are entitled to decide their own country’s future. Russia is leading a classic colonial war against Ukraine, and Ukraine has no choice but to fight for its existence.
- Russia’s impunity. Starting with the failure to recognize the USSR’s role in launching WWII (and a lack of punishment for that), continued turning of blind eye to Russia’s aggression against former USSR republics in the 1990s (Lithuania, Georgia, Moldova) and later aggression against Ichkeria, Georgia, Syria, and Ukraine has signaled to Russia and other authoritarian regimes that they can use force as they wish.
- Russia’s racism (white supremacism). While Germany went through a long and painful process of denazification, Russian extreme nationalism was never even recognized as a problem. Thus, Russia continued practicing supremacism with respect to other nations. Today it carries out the genocide of Ukrainians in the same way as it implemented the genocide of many other nations since the 15th century. Russian supremacism is not new. It has been there for centuries, and it was back in the 19th century that the concept of “spirituous Russia” defeating the “decadent West” became clearly formulated. This idea is prominent in Russian society, which supports the war with an overwhelming majority.
- Russian culture and history. Unfortunately, many Western universities still teach a myth of a specific Russian “spirituality” and “great culture”. Some professors and ‘intellectuals’ continue to proliferate Russian propaganda and adopt Russia’s imperialist point of view on Ukraine and the war. This is not a minor problem, because this war is about culture: in all the occupied territories, Russians first burn Ukrainian books, destroy Ukrainian monuments, loot museums, and then begin indoctrinating the residents who have not fled with Russian propaganda. Therefore, while Ukrainian culture is being killed, representatives of Russian culture, which is the biggest enabler of the war, should keep silent. And programs supporting Ukrainians should not include Russians.
What are Russia’s aims?
Russia wants to restore its imperial “greatness”. This means bringing back its “runaway provinces”, such as Ukraine, Kazakhstan, or the Baltic states, and erasing their national identities. Russia wants to use Ukrainian land as a springboard to enable attacks on other countries in the same way as it used occupied Crimea and parts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts to attack government-controlled areas of Ukraine. Moreover, it views Ukrainians as a mobilization resource for its future war against NATO. Russia (and its allies) want to control the entire Eurasia and the world. Russia will stop only when it is stopped by force.
What are the global consequences of the war?
The war in Ukraine is a war of autocracies against democracies. We can find many historic examples when autocracies prevailed and freedom disappeared for many years. Social progress is not a given, and a new Dark Age can come. It is also clear that giving money to autocratic governments does not make them democratic, and providing them with more resources makes them more dangerous, not less. Therefore, helping Ukraine win is crucial for peace in the world.
If Russia is allowed to prevail, other countries from the “axis of evil” will be empowered, which will lead to more wars. Iran (via its proxies Hamas and Yemen Houthis) has already started a war in the Middle East. It is very possible that North Korea will attack South Korea and that China will attack Taiwan if they see that democracies are weak (or, rather, choose to be weak). Some countries, e.g. in Latin America, may think that Ukraine is too far from them. But Ukraine’s victory is essential for them too — because World War III would have adverse consequences for everyone.
As we warned in early 2022, the “peace dividend” (the opportunity to spend on people and infrastructure instead of weapons) is already gone because of insufficient support for Ukraine in 2022. The longer Ukraine continues to be a “gladiator in the arena”, the higher the probability that spectators will have to fight themselves.
What can be done?
The answer is two-fold: weaken Russia and support Ukraine.
One way to weaken Russia is to strengthen sanctions on Russian oil and other hydro-carbons — Russia’s main sources of revenue. Buying Russian oil is immoral, and the ESG ratings of companies that do this should therefore be lowered considerably. Apart from the human and economic toll, the war imposes enormous environmental damage. Russia currently occupies the largest nuclear power plant in Europe; it cold-heartedly blew up one of the largest dams and lied about it. The same concerns companies who remain in Russia and thus contribute to the war. Their excuses make no sense (however, they do exit under the pressure from their customers and shareholders). To avoid being trapped in China in the same way, Western companies should start exiting China, which is now clearly part of the “axis of evil.”
Sanctions levied on Russia do have an effect. However, to stop the Russian war machine they should be much stronger. They should include, for example, a complete embargo on oil and gas or a ‘take-don’t-pay’ scheme; a ban on parallel imports of dual-use goods to Russia; requirements for technology companies to track down their products making it to the Russian market; and a transfer of Russian assets to Ukraine — not only government-controlled but also those owned by Russian oligarchs who support the Russian regime. Collective government action against tax havens would not only enable the pursuit of Russia’s concealed assets but also reduce illegal activities and global tax evasion, thereby severing the tentacles of Russian corruption inside the EU, US and other countries.
It’s shameful that sanctions on Russia are so weak, for two reasons. First, they have inflicted much less pain on the developed countries’ economies than expected. Second, even if they do inflict some short-term pain, the long-term gains will be much higher. The West can and should isolate Russia completely from the developed world –- both economically and politically.
In 2022 and 2023, support for Ukraine was too limited and too slow, which prevented the Ukrainian army’s advance. But even with these few resources, Ukraine made astonishing progress: it destroyed much more of Russian army materiel than Russia destroyed of Ukrainian equipment, and it opened the sea route blocked by Russia (the “grain corridor” was just a ruse). Today, in early 2024, we see perfectly well how this short-termism is depriving Ukraine of critical support. To overcome this short-termism, democratic governments should establish a ‘rainy day’ fund for Ukraine which can be filled with seized Russian money.
Ukrainians deeply appreciate the support extended to them thus far, which surpasses anything Ukraine has received in the past two centuries. However, recognizing that this is not merely a localized conflict but a global war — akin to 1939 in its magnitude — there is an urgent need for further actions to mitigate its devastating scale.
First, democracies should not be afraid of Russia. Russia is not a superpower, although it succeeded in creating a few robust myths about itself. Russia is much weaker than it seems. Despite this, the West chose a responsive stance instead of a proactive strategy. The main reason for this is the fear of escalation. But it is exactly the lack of adequate reaction to Russia’s actions and the appeasement of the aggressor that leads to escalation. All the talks about “diplomacy”, “negotiations” or a “frozen conflict” are just lip service helping Russia – because there is zero trust that Russia would implement any agreement.
By contrast, a decisive counteraction to the aggressor would show both Russia and other autocracies that the West is strong and can protect itself. Thus, Russia’s decisive defeat should become the strategic goal of democracies. Russia should be held responsible for what it did, as this is the only recipe for a sustainable peace. For now, despite our warnings, Ukraine’s allies have not sent a clear signal to Putin that he will not win. Because Russians adore their authoritarian government and place zero value on human life, he remains hopeful that he can win in a war of attrition.
Therefore, democracies should provide Ukraine with all the weapons it needs (contrary to the common fear, this will reduce the risk of nuclear escalation). Arming Ukraine also helps developed countries’ economies, and it is the only way forward to sustained peace and progress.
Second, it is necessary to support Ukraine’s economy because Ukraine’s productive facilities and human capital are severely damaged and everything that Ukraine collects in taxes it must spend on self-defense. For example, the EU can employ instruments it used to support its businesses during Covid. Ukraine can use lessons from previous wars and increase both taxes and domestic borrowing to finance the war but it will be extremely hard for it to survive without external aid because it is defending itself against a much larger economy supported by the second-largest economy in the world. With sufficient support, control and reforms, Ukraine will be able to recover quite soon. Ukraine’s recovery should be based on the “build back better” principle and coupled with EU integration. The latter will change not only Ukraine but also the EU, and we believe that this change will be progressive.
On an individual level, we encourage people and companies to donate to Ukraine. However, to do this efficiently, one should donate to Ukrainian organizations that work on the ground rather than to bureaucratic behemoths such as the Red Cross or UN-umbrella organizations. Many of us donate to AI4Good, which runs a number of humanitarian aid projects in Ukraine.
What will happen to Russia?
To many Ukrainians, this question seems odd or irrelevant. However, it is an important one because we cannot change geography. Here’s our two-part answer. First, we should ignore suggestions made by Russian so-called opposition because it has no impact and produces ideas that would only delay Ukraine’s victory, such as providing “indulgences” to Russian oligarchs or a “Marshall plan” for Russia and Belarus.
Second, we must recognize that, as any empire, Russia will eventually dissolve. Assuming that Russia will somehow become a democracy is completely unfounded. There can be democratic Ichkeria, Tatarstan or Bashkortostan but the Russian empire has always been held together by fear and repression. An attempt to liberalize the USSR resulted in its dissolution, which was feared by the West in the same way it fears dissolution of Russia today. However, smart people learn from their mistakes and do not repeat them. As suggested by a number of Ukrainian NGOs, a sustainable peace is possible only when Russia is defeated, tried for its crimes, and restructured.
