Dear Chancellor, 

Congratulations on taking the helm of the Federal Republic of Germany!

You are in a perfect storm, and Germany must rise to the occasion. Russia continues to wage a war of aggression on Ukraine and to threaten Europe’s security. The German economy faces difficult times. Your key ally across the Atlantic just gave the EU a very “cold shower.” 

The good news is that, with decisive leadership, you – and other EU leaders – can still turn things around.    

First, Europe has the resources necessary to defeat Russian aggression, and Moscow is much weaker than many observers think. Russia’s economy is just one-tenth of the EU GDP. It is weakened by domestic corruption and foreign sanctions and overheated by military spending. Ukrainian missile and drone strikes, however limited, considerably weaken Russian production capacity, and this could be further accelerated with Taurus missiles. Prigozhyn’s march on Moscow could have toppled the regime – there was no counteraction from Russia’s special forces. 

Ukrainian armed forces have deeply wounded the Russian war machine: since the start of the full-scale invasion, Russia has lost over 10,000 tanks, 370 airplanes, 330 helicopters, over a thousand anti-aircraft systems, and practically the entire Black Sea fleet. It even lost a part of its sovereign territory in the Kursk region. All of this has been achieved by the Ukrainian army, which is smaller than Russia’s and equipped with homemade drones and a hodgepodge of Western weapons, many of which are quite old. More and better military kit, delivered in a timely manner, would make the war untenable for Russia. 

Second, building a stronger military force in Germany and Ukraine would secure Germany and other EU member states a seat at the table for key negotiations on security and economic matters but also help Germany to regain its economic strength. For example, German industrial production is in a difficult spot, but you can give it a boost with new defence contracts. This will create jobs, reduce strategic dependencies, forge links with other European nations, and fund innovation; the objectives also outlined in the Draghi report. Of course, you will need to increase public spending, and money is tight, but you can spare your taxpayers by seizing $300 billion of frozen Russian money (the only credible reason not to seize this money would be the intention to return it to Putin, which hopefully is not the case).     

Third, we know that Russia retreats when it faces force. Recall George Kennan’s long telegram written in 1946: “Impervious to logic of reason, [USSR/Russia] is highly sensitive to logic of force. For this reason [USSR/Russia] can easily withdraw – and usually does when strong resistance is encountered at any point.” This still applies to Russia today. Sensing weakness and indecision, Russia attacks (Moldova in 1991, Georgia in 2008, Ukraine in 2014 and then in 2022). Confronted with credible force and deterrence, Russia withdraws. For instance, Russia did nothing when Finland and Sweden joined NATO despite Putin’s repeated complaints about NATO expansion. When Turkiye shot down a Russian military plane, Russia banned the imports of Turkish tomatoes. When Assad’s regime was toppled in 11 days, Russia just watched. This is the variable you can control: more defense spending and more military aid to Ukraine, coupled with tougher sanctions on Russia, will make the rhetoric about taking German security into German hands credible. 

Finally, it should be clear by now that incremental tweaks will not address the existential threat from Russia. But the piecemeal, delayed response was largely self-imposed. You can lift this constraint and join other European countries who call for bolder actions. Your leadership is vital for making decisions that will affect your country and Europe for decades to come.  

There are also immense challenges and pitfalls ahead.

The war in Ukraine is a direct and existential threat to the European project, to European security, and to the very ideals of democracy around the world. It is high time to recognize that Russia is waging a broader war against Europe: energy blackmail, cutting cables, blowing up factories, using migrants to violate borders and carry out acts of terror in order to bring ultra-right pro-Russian parties to power. This is only the tip of the iceberg of what can happen. For instance, what if tomorrow some people in Belarussian army uniforms occupy a Lithuanian village? Will NATO’s article 5 be enacted? Does the EU have the muscle to protect its members? Or will Eastern Europe be recognized as Russia’s “sphere of influence” again, thus effectively destroying NATO?

You may hear that Russia will use nuclear weapons if it’s defeated. Bob Woodward’s latest book revealed that the Biden administration slowed down shipments of weapons to Ukraine in 2022 – when there was a high chance of defeating Russia – because they were scared by Putin’s nuclear blackmail. Do not cave in. Doing so would only increase the probability of future wars. Instead, calling Russia’s bluff would push it back (in fact, there is no guarantee that Russia’s strategic missiles work; for instance, a Sarmat missile recently exploded in the launching silo). 

Remember that Ukraine crossed many imaginary “red lines” (including going into the Kursk region), and nuclear weapons were never used. In 1961, German Chancellor Konrad Adenauer had a clear message for the Kremlin: “[nuclear threats] directed from time to time against one or other of the NATO partners are …dangerous, [but] the Soviet government must know that by any such blow, it would touch off a counter-blow by which it would be annihilated.” Russian elites want to live (especially in Europe, where they have mansions and children), and they are not ready to commit suicide. A more alarming nuclear threat is Russia’s occupation of the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant and Russia’s attack on the Chornobyl NPP.

Therefore, Russia can and, in fact, must be defeated in Ukraine. It is the best chance of a strong democratic future for the Russian state. For as long as the Russian state apparatus is highly militarised, autocratic, and aggressively pursuing military partnerships with countries such as North Korea, Iran, and China, it will dampen European growth, and undermine global security. It is important to recognize that this may involve direct European engagement against Russian troops in the interests of not fighting that same war on the back foot in the heart of Europe against an unconstrained Russian military machine. These discussions must be brought to the fore, as a deterrent, and as a real imminent possibility.

Lastly, it could be tempting to promise a quick resolution, but you should prepare for a long haul. Avoid the mistakes of Putin (who promised to capture Kyiv in 3 days; we are at the 3-year mark of the full-scale war) or Trump (who promised to stop the war in one day; we are in the 4th week of his presidency, and despite the rhetoric there is no credible plan in sight). 

You should be looking for a just and therefore lasting peace in Ukraine. Dividing Europe a la Yalta 1945 – or Munich 1938 – would make the continent less secure and pave a way for more future wars but this time possibly on German soil or with German soldiers as Trump appears ready to throw the entire European continent under Russian tanks. A battle-ready, strong military force that follows European values and interests is critical for enforcing security in Ukraine and the rest of Europe.   

We want to conclude by reminding you that every day of the war takes lives, destroys homes, and inflicts unbearable pain in Ukraine. There is no time to lose. We are at your service to help you defeat Russian aggression and restore security and prosperity in Europe.