Two years ago, we described a scenario that would have likely unfolded had Ukraine “fallen in three days” (in short – a concentration camp from Lisbon to Vladivostok). Today, it seems that Trump has enabled (some argue that even joined) Putin to start implementing this scenario.  It is dangerous not only for Ukraine but also for Europe with negative implications  for the US and the rest of the world. Ukraine’s former commander-in-chief Valeriy Zaluzhnyi  believes that, as the US has now joined Russia in destroying the global order, NATO effectively does not exist anymore.

Russia’s war on Europe (yes, the war is being waged on Europe, and Ukraine is its frontline) is Europe’s most important problem. Why? Because under Russian occupation, no one cares about the environment, human rights, stable prices, or people’s well-being. Therefore, Europe must defend itself and, together with Ukraine, defeat Russia. 

What can Europe do for its collective defense? 

First, it can close the sky over Ukraine to protect Ukraine’s people, production capacity, and energy infrastructure, and thus enable Ukraine to continue the fight. For example, Europe can use French, British, Swedish, and other planes to intercept Russian missiles and drones. There is already an initiative arguing that 120 fighter jets from European countries would be enough to protect half of Ukraine’s territory, and the rest would be covered by Ukraine’s air forces. This option could be cheaper than using Patriot intercept missiles. Furthermore, Europe can ramp up production and transfer air defense systems made in Europe to Ukraine. Stop thinking about “how Russia will react” and remember that when faced with strength, Russia backs down.   

Second, Europe and other democratic countries interested in the rule of law should invest more in Ukraine’s defense sector, which is producing some of the most effective and technologically advanced weapons cheaply and quickly. Denmark’s program along these lines has proven highly effective.

In parallel, there should be more investment in the defense sector of European countries and their allies, such as Canada, Australia, South Korea, and Japan. The funding can come from (1) seizing frozen Russian assets; (2) using excess revenues from high energy prices that some countries enjoyed (e.g. Norway); (3) redirecting resources from Europe-US projects that have lost their purpose in the current environment. This will create jobs in the defense sector and related industries and thus also help overcome economic stagnation in Europe. 

At the same time, sanctions (especially secondary sanctions) on Russia should be enforced more rigorously to deprive the Russian war machine of financial resources. In addition to the oil price cap, one can implement an oil-for-food program for Russia or limit the shipping of Russian oil via Danish straits (about a third of Russian oil exports shipped by its dangerous “shadow fleet” passes through these straits). The EU should introduce stricter environmental requirements for oil tankers in the Baltic sea to avoid oil leakages from the Russian shadow tanker fleet, which is very old, poorly maintained, and carries a high risk of environmental disaster. 

Finally, Europe should provide Ukraine with more means to destroy Russian military bases and logistics. Ukraine has been very effective in using long-range missiles to wreck Russian ammunition depots, command centers, and other military targets. Ukraine should be able to use Taurus and Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles without any restrictions to make those strikes even more effective. 

If these steps are not implemented, the cost of indecisiveness will be high. A tsunami of refugees, political instability, weapons, and nuclear materials are only the tip of the iceberg that can hit Europe if Ukraine falls. If Russia is allowed to occupy Ukraine, it will use Ukrainian production capacities and people against Europe as it currently uses the  people and resources of Ukraine’s occupied territories against Ukraine. Moreover, other countries that have territorial disputes with their neighbors will be encouraged to go ahead and try to grab what they want. In this war, there will be no winners, and Europe will not be able to stay out of it. 

A ray of light in this difficult situation is that Ukraine is not willing to give up its freedom, democracy, and dignity. At an enormous cost, Ukraine continues to defends not only itself but also Europe’s Eastern border. This heroic resistance has already proven that Russian aggression can be defeated. The Russian army has been pushed back several times and has recently slowed down again, because the Ukrainian army has destroyed so many Russian tanks, planes, and soldiers. The Russian economy is in poor shape. In a sign of exhaustion, Russia did nothing when Assad’s regime in Syria crumbled, although Syria used to be Russia’s stronghold in Africa. 

Beating back Russia is closer than many observers think. Only a decisive victory by Ukraine and its allies and an eventual regime change in Russia will open a window of opportunity for durable de-escalation and make Europe safe again. Europe must mobilize its vast resources to support Ukraine and deliver durable peace on the continent.