The EU has refused to immediately and fully embargo Russian oil and gas purchases out of fear that it would throw the continent into an industrially-led recession, or would cause a much larger spike in prices. These arguments do not reflect the reality of supply-side elasticity in the oil and gas markets, and ignore the enormous costs that we are paying already as a result of the purchases of oil and gas from Russia
We use a unique high-frequency Russian customs data to evaluate the impact of international sanctions on Russia. We focus on Russian crude oil and oil products exports, as they are the key sources of export revenues and government finances. We find that Russia was able to redirect crude oil exports from Europe to alternative markets such as India, China, and Turkey with no loss of volumes. In particular, we find that Russian oil exports from Pacific Ocean ports, which are critical for trade with China, do not comply with the G7 price cap.
Peace treaties don’t always bring peace. Sometimes they only change the form of war. As the world anticipates hopefully an end to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and some observers suggest that peace may come at the cost of Ukrainian territory, it’s important to remember that the short-term joy that will almost certainly accompany peace could be merely a prelude to years or decades of carnage unless the peace is just and stable.
As the new academic year approaches, government officials, faculty, administrators, and students are tackling the massive challenges of keeping education going in wartime. The survival of many Ukrainian universities is now at stake due to lack of funding, displaced staff and students, and destroyed infrastructure.
In this paper, we propose further financial sanctions to increase the cost to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, based on further targeting two key vulnerabilities. The first targets Russia’s reliance on the U.S. Dollar and Western currencies as a reserve currency to back the Ruble. The second vulnerability is the Russian economy’s dependence on the Western financial system for a range of services.
Through this paper, the working group aims to share its expertise and provide assistance to international efforts focused on the formulation of sanctions to increase the cost to Russia and support Ukraine in the defense of its territorial integrity and national sovereignty.
The West must maintain and step up the sanctions pressure on Russia in order to persuade the Kremlin that it must end its war against Ukraine. The working group applauds the EU’s decision to impose a 6th package of sanctions to sustain pressure on the Russian economy, reducing the regime’s ability to wage war in Ukraine.
We explore the determinants and consequences of U.S. corporations limiting their business operations in Russia in the immediate aftermath of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.
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