Hey, America. Do we keep our promises?

I am not writing on February 24th. This is not an ode to an anniversary. These are people's lives we're playing with, and we will all be to blame if we don't do more, now.

On December 5th, 1994, the United States made a promise to assure the future respect of Ukraine's sovereign territory.

In 2014, Ukraine didn't attack anyone. Part of its internationally (UN) recognised borders were violated by Russia. Nothing of significance was done to help.

In 2022, Ukraine didn't attack anyone. The entire country has been subjected to daily attack for more than 2 years, a concerted invasion by the world's second largest army, and heinous crimes against innocent civilians, which have killed more than 100,000* non-combatants, and many more military personnel.

In exchange for the 1994 assurances, Ukraine was instructed to give its nuclear weapons to Russia. Notably, this increased Russia's nuclear deterrent by 50%, mostly with weapons calibrated and designed to reach the United States.

The United States made a promise, and I grew up with the impression that, say what you will about American foreign policy, about American consumerism, about American culture, AMERICANS ALWAYS KEPT THEIR PROMISES.

So, America, what kind of a friend are you? Are you the friend who checks Google maps and decides to stay home when there is traffic, or the kind of friend who will move heaven and earth to make it because we stand and fall by our word?

It may be true that alone Ukraine could eventually lose this war to russia. But it is not the case that together we cannot stop russia.

We have already stopped russia in many ways while sending only around $30B of cash to Ukraine since February 24th, 2022. That's less than half a percent of the 2024 federal budget, It's around 1% of combined state budgets for 2024, or, roughly the state budget of Arkansas before receiving any federal funding.

To put it another way, nothing would have been noticeably different in the US if the US had not sent cash to Ukraine. It would have been imperceptible on all levels, and did not prevent any other spending. The cash sent to Ukraine was subject to extreme audits, and was found to have ZERO corruption. Can we say the same thing about other budget line items?

The remainder (~$80B) of the United States appropriations related to the war in Ukraine were mostly spent in the United States, on US companies, supporting well-paying jobs in the military industrial sector (mostly in Republican-leaning states and constituencies), generating US state and federal tax revenues, supporting economic growth, and continued recovery from COVID.

See our research work at https://econ4ua.org. The Economists for Ukraine network has over 400 members, designed many of the sanctions recommendations against russia, and supported wartime economic policy in Ukraine.

That spending is playing a role in revitalising US military-industrial manufacturing capacity, replacing outdated stockpiles, and modernising parts of the US military which might otherwise be found surprisingly lacking if there were a real short-term need. In other words: "spending on Ukraine" is not spending on Ukraine--it is spending on our own military modernisation, which is having positive economic effects in republican constituencies across the country. At the same time, the old stockpiles (with high failure rates which in many cases would disqualify them from US military use) are sent to Ukraine.

The vast majority (90%) of russia's pre-war ground units have been destroyed by the Ukrainian army and the help of its allies including the US. Despite misleading reporting, the EU is also paying its way to help Ukraine and fortify its defenses. The EU and individual governments (a block similar in size to the US) have sent more than $80B in direct cash to Ukraine, and tens of billions of dollars to the US and European military industrial sectors to be able to send their own old equipment to Ukraine, and replace it with new weapons systems.

So, that means, the war in Ukraine is increasing European investment in US-made defense equipment. It's increasing the strength of NATO-country armies (thus decreasing the risk to NATO in the future), and it's having a positive economic effect in the US.

Keeping our promise to Ukraine is not only the American thing to do, but it is also the economically beneficial thing to do, the militarily beneficial thing to do, and will help put "America first".

Find out at https://ai4good.org/ukraine what we are doing in Ukraine, still, and how you can support effective initiatives to bring peace to the region.